Group 1 Racing arrives at Morphettville this Saturday and it is the fairer sex who take centre stage on Oaks Ladies Day.
The Schweppes Oaks is Race Six on the program and the first of the two big Group 1’s on the card. A capacity field of sixteen with four emergencies has been drawn for the Schweppes Oaks with the Ryan Balfour trained Dreamed the lone S.A filly at this stage to fly the flag for the locals. Phillip Stokes with So We Are and Will Clarken with Havana Heat have two of the four emergencies hoping to sneak into Saturday’s feature. Betting for the Race is open with Princess Jenni currently holding favouritism ahead of Amangiri.
Saturday will also see the running of the Group 1 TAB Classic (Registered as the Robert Sangster Stakes) and again we see the locals light on for numbers with just three of the final field of fifteen starters emerging from South Australian stables. All three started their careers elsewhere, with Tony McEvoy and Mark Minervini saddling up former W.A. mares Cool Passion and Mica Lil respectively, whilst Will Clarken sends out former Queensland mare Everyday Lady. Despite drawing the outside barrier fifteen, the multiple Group 1 placed mare Spright from the Hawkesbury stable in New South Wales of Gary Frazer seems likely to run the popular elect with punters.
Before tackling the two big Group 1 Races on Saturday a couple of horses that stand out earlier are A Shin Rook in Race Two and Handsome Return in Race Four. A Shin Rook From the Anthony Freedman stable will have the services of Craig Williams and returns to the scene of his most recent outing which resulted in a success over the same 1600 metre trip. Former Kiwi galloper Handsome Return will be looking to build on his record of three wins from six starts in Australia since joining the Will Clarken team and on Saturday he is reunited with Jamie Kah who piloted him in his first two wins in Oz.
Here it is, the first meet for the May madness period here at Morphetville. Two Group 1’s. Can PPA make it 5 winning weeks in a row??
Race 6 I’m not in a rush to have a bet. But if you held a gun to my head with $5000 cash and said have a bet, id Chuck 3k at $3 odds on #3 Princess Jenni and 1k each way on a past selection of ours #4 Mirette at $12.
Race 7 does tickle me fancy just a lil, #6 Jamaican Rain I will be keen to have a 1 by 2 type bet on in a very competitive race.
Brilliant first up display in Melbourne 2 weeks back when well supported in betting. Looks absolutely primed here to go on with it second up, Soft track will be no issue and I wont be surprised to see this horse 'odds on' come jump time. Should we way too good once again.
This 2yo Mcevoy first starter lines up in a ripping race to start the card. Trialled beautiful and if she can handle the sting out the ground, we will see what the potential future star has to offer.
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Did you hear that knock on the door? It’s just old mate Postie delivering the great news that Group 1 racing is in town!
I’ve had a little squiz at the past history of our six massive Stakes races to see if we can’t find a winner or six and fill my mailbag full of cash this Saturday.
The little tackers kick us off on Oaks Day in the Listed Queen Adelaide Stakes.
In the last ten years there has only been one first-up winner which was Za Moulin Rouge back in 2013. This would suggest it will be tough for the debutants Clearly Adonis and Balaabel to win along with Italian Witness who is returning from a spell.
No horse has won over $7 with an average winning price of $4.20. This rules out the Pat Carey trained $71 chance Tantilizer. So we are left with the last start winners, Li’l Kontra, Absolute Flirt and Hearty Lass. Three last start winners have claimed the race over the last ten years and it looks like this year we might find our fourth in 2019.
While Barrier 1 has produced the winner three times in ten years, Barrier 5 has produced the winner twice and that’s what the Danny O’Brien trained Absolute Flirt will jump from. With D. Oliver on board, she’ll be the horse the Postman has a sneaky wager on to build his Oaks Day kitty.
It was this race last year we saw the future Group 1 Goodwood winner step out with Santa Ana Lane running third to Sprightly Lass before claiming the first of his four Group 1 victories he’d go on to win in the next 12 months.
Interestingly Sprightly Lass was the only horse in the last ten years to not go onto contest the Group 1 feature a fortnight later but in saying that the Goodwood hasn’t been kind to past winners of the McKay. The 2010 and 2009 winners Catapulted and I Am Invincible are the best performed batch of recent McKay winners both going on to run second in the Goodwood.
Looking to Saturday though four of the last five winners of the McKay contested a Stakes race in their previous start. Only three of the eight horses fit the bill there with Hard Empire and Despatch both coming into this race with Stakes victories and Zalmona a narrow runner-up in the Listed Oakabank Stakes to Despatch. You’d be leaning to the two last start winners who are second and third elects in the market behind the Godolphin trained Haunted. The untapped Despatch for me.
The ladies kick off the day’s quaddie and boy oh boy do we have a race here!
In the last five years no horse has won at odds greater than $9 which shows the bookie know what they are doing in this particular race! Only five horses are likely to start in single figure odds which include the Ken Keys trained Spanish Reef who is fresh off a fifth placing in the Group 1 Queen of the Turf in Randwick. She’s the red hot favourite followed by Clearly, Temple of Bel, Music Bay and Tahitian Dancer.
Interestingly the last five winners have all either run first or second in their last start. Amazingly there are only three horses that fit that bill, including Naivasha, Pretty Glass and Temple of Bel.
Going on those stats, I’ve gotta go with the Tony McEvoy trained Temple of Bel to kick start our quaddie.
We have a genuinely classy field assembled for this year’s Group 1 Oaks which includes four Stakes winners and the Group 1 Victorian Oaks winner Aristia.
We’ve had seven editions of the Oaks in the Carnival as we know it and in those seven years we haven’t seen a winner over $8. Working on that, it’s a four horse race between the favourite Princess Jenni, Amangiri, Aristia and Zalette.
While the Auraria Stakes has been a strong form race, producing four of the last seven winners, the last four winners of the race have all been last start winners.
Princess Jenni is the horse that fits the bill in both categories. She looks a lovely filly and while she’s the likely choice, the Postman is predicting a late surge for the Auraria winner Mirette. I reckon she’s going to jump at single figures odds and deliver a nice collect for the early shoppers.
The finest fillies and mares sprint in Australia always delivers a great race and there is no doubt the 2019 edition is going to be an absolute corker.
The Sangster has been part of the Carnvial for seven years now and there is one simple rule to finding a winner. They must have run in the top three in a Stakes race in their last start. There have been five last start Stakes winners in the last seven years but a top three finish is a must.
This only leaves us with three chances. The Mick Price trained pair of Princess of Queens and Anjana along with the Perth visitor Lady Cosmology. Now Mick Price knows a thing or two about winning a Sangster. The bloke has won four of them and I feel that Anjana is the one here. She couldn’t quite catch Humma Humma in the Listed Redelva but with the extra 100m and her second look at the Morphettville track, I’m keen on her. Back Price, don’t think twice.
You might not find a better edition of the Euclase in history and what a way to finish off the quaddie!
The Euclase has only been held in May for five years and in that time horses have won coming out of both BM70’s (Faatinah) and Group 3’s (Sweet Sherry) and also saluting as $3.30 favourites (Miracles of Life) and $151 outsiders (I’ll Have a Bit).
All I know is that if we look a bit further back, Barrier 9 is the gate you want. Five winners have jumped from Barrier 9 in the last ten years and that bodes well for the race favourite and undefeated three-year-old Terbium. While’s he’s going to have to be the first horse to win first-up since one of the Postman’s all-time favourite’s Majestic Music back in 2010, the Postman thinks this horse is a genuine star and will be winning the Get Out Stakes.
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