It is TAB South Australian Derby Day at Morphettville on Saturday with the Group 1 feature Race Seven at 4-06 P.M. on an outstanding card of racing.
With TAB the Phillip Stokes trained Mr Quickie is topping the markets. A winner of eight of his eleven career starts Mr Quickie will be piloted by Irishman John Allen, who won the Derby consecutively in 2016 and 2017 aboard Howard Be Thy Name and Volatile Mix.
Anthony Freedman has a strong two pronged attack with Declarationofheart and Ridgewood Drive. Both were impressive last start winners and appear set to play a big hand in Saturday’s classic.
Chapada is another horse pushing for favouritism. Placed in the Victoria Derby at Flemington in the spring the Michael Moroney youngster was also Group 1 placed in Sydney two starts ago behind the recently retired boom horse The Autumn Sun.
Tony McEvoy goes one better than Freedman with three runners lining up for his Kildalton Park establishment. Secret Blaze, Classic Weiwei and Resurge will represent the State’s leading Trainer.
Pinning our faith in Will Clarken to find us a winner on Saturday. Split Lip for Clarken in Race Four has found the line strongly in two shorter races this campaign and a step up to 1200 metres will see her hard to hold out. Whilst in the last Parsifal is looking to maintain it’s unbeaten record for the Clarken stable after wins at Morphettville and Warrnambool in two runs since joining his team.
The PPA crystal ball for Derby Day has arrived! We have had some consistent rain here the past 48 hours, as a result there will be plenty of sting out of the ground. There are a handful of real nice races once again, none better than Race 4 the Propunteralert.com handicap. BM90. We are betting around this race and instead we will enjoy a nice cold one and watch them fight it out for the PPA bragging rights.
A young filly who will no doubt go back and take a sit off midfield, I expect they will be steering clear of the rail at Morph, so flying down the middle from the back will be no issue. Gets a much easier opposition here, possesses a deadly turn of foot and looks the bet of the card to come flying over the top.
For the Derby i'm going with an in form Mr Quickie. Perfectly named 3yo gelding who has won 8 races from 11 starts. Unseen on soft but if he can handle the sting out of the ground is the clear one to beat in the feature.
The only other one I will be having some hard earned pocket money on R2 #4 Debt Collector. We have been on previous, looks set here with a key jockey change and rise in distance.
Get down to the track for what will be a superb day of racing.
The Postie is back and ready for week two of the Festival of Racing after finding a couple nice winners and the Oaks quinella last weekend. A nice little reward for those of you who took the time to check your post-box and read your mail.
Now if you thought the day finished off with a bang, with huge wins to both Spright and Valour Road, then you’ll be salivating as the two are set to go head to head in next weekend’s Group 1 Goodwood. The news gets better as we’re throwing a few more classy sprinters into the pot next weekend too with Booker, Iconoclasm and Eduardo set to join the Goodwood party.
Anyway, that’s ages away as we have wads of cash to collect this weekend and your old mate Postie is going to get stuck into he big Group 1 Derby and the two Stake races as well.
Over the last five years the Breeders Stakes has been the form race heading into the Sires Produce with four of five winners of the Sires coming out of the Breeders. However on each of those four occasions, the horse coming out of the Breeders had run in the top two on route to their Sires win.
The problem we have here is that only two runners coming from the Breeders did not run the quinella a fortnight ago but Tony McEvoy’s She Shao Fly (3rd) and Will Clarken’s Ethical Solution (4th) look like big chances to somewhat continue the trend.
In 2016 when Flying Jess claimed the Sires she ran second the start prior in a two-year-old maiden race. So working along the other trend of needing to run in the quinella the start prior we have a whole heap of extra runners who can now win including last start winners Barcali, Mr Deadline, Hinchpin You Hadme at Hello and Cartier Tiara.
To add in another bit of history, no horse has saluted at odds greater than $10 in the sires, which doesn’t really help us here with seven of the ten runners currently in the market at $10 or shorter.
So the Posties has to put his mailbag on the line here and choose which formline he’s following. For me I’m backing in the Breeders Stakes form and to me, She Shao Fly looks the one. She’s likely to jump favourite but in her last two runs at Stakes level she’s run on very nicely from the back of the field and the jump from 1200m to 1400m looks absolutely perfect for her. She Shao get us off to a Flyer.
The old AG AG. What a race! Has been won by a couple of the Postie’s all-time favourites including Peaceful State and the warhorse Riziz. But enough of my trip down memory lane, let’s find the 2019 winner.
The Nitschke Stakes has been the form race for the Guineas with five of the last seven winners coming out of the Listed race the fortnight prior. Of those five winners two claimed both the Nitschke and the Guineas (Peaceful State & General Peekay).
We have four runners from this year’s Nitschke lining up in Saturday’s Adelaide Guineas including the winner East Indiaman and third placegetter Ice Ghost. Joining that pair is John Macmillan’s Aiguilette and Rob Wilkinson’s Array of Sunshine.
The well supported horses have gotten the chocolates in all bar one of the last six editions of the race with the average winning price in those years being $4.60. The massive upset came in 2017 when Katelyn Mallyon stole the race aboard John Hyam’s Vienna Miss claiming the race at $81.
I can’t see that happening this year and I’m going to stick with the Nitschke winner East Indiaman.
He was gusty in that win and Raquel Clark retains the ride on the Tony McEvoy gelding when she perhaps could have taken another ride or two in this race. She partnered Phillip Stokes’s So We Are last start in the Auraria but she didn’t get a start in the Oaks so is looking for redemption here and over the mile I think she’s a great each way chance. I also don’t mind Musswellbrook who has been frustrating to follow but has contested more Stakes races than some of his rivals have had race starts.
The Derby always seems to me like any horse can win it on their day but history suggests otherwise.
In the last ten editions, seven winners have saluted at $5 or less and six winners ran in the top four in the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes in their prior start.
Interestingly the two favourites in the race Mr Quickie ($3.70) and Ridgewood Drive ($5.50) are coming out of races in Victoria and both recorded really strong last start wins. Often that Victorian form is seen as superior but in the Derby it really pays to look in our own backyard.
Declarationofheart is probably over the odds at $5.50 after his last start win in the Chairman’s and he really did mow down his rivals to record a very comfortable win. He’s definitely my top pick off that win but I really do like some of the odds of the others coming out of the Chairman’s as well.
Classic Weiwei and Star Missile both ran on strongly late in the race to run into placings and at $20 and $18 respectively should be included in your multiples. The one I like at odds is the hometown lad, Star Status. He ran into a spot of trouble in the Chairman’s but still ran on strongly to finish fourth. With a better run he is well over the odds at $46 and Leon Macdonald knows a thing or two about winning a Derby, he did have a little horse called Rebel Raider back in the day…
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